🔗 Share this article

A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.

As per Opta, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.