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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still